Inertial inflation, indexation and price stickiness: evidence from Brazil

This paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for Brazil. The hypothesis posits that indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one-time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent changes in inflation. A theoretical model is used to show that this outcome is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility. However, with price stickiness indexation does not produce inertial inflation. The degree of inertia is then compared for two periods: one without indexation (1945–1963), and one with indexation (1969–1985). Finally, vector-autoregressive representations are estimated for the latter period, allowing for price stickiness. The empirical results do not support the hypothesis.     

IS THE WORLD SHORT OF SAVINGS?

The opening up of Eastern Europe may give rise to a surge in investment as the former socialist economies move to a market-based system. The scope for modernization of the region in terms of its industrial, environmental and social capital raises the question of how the increase in demand can be accommodated. Since the Ergonomic shock of the early 1980s, most of the world's net saving has been provided by Japan and West Germany in the form of huge current account surpluses. If GMU now implies a significant drop in German savings, does this mean, as the OECD has recently suggested that there is a risk that world savings will be inadequate?     

Macroeconomic policies in a supergame oligopolistic economy

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic policies in a general equilibrium system where the product market is modelled as an oligopolistic supergame. It is shown that policies which affect the interest rate, influence the degree of competition and hence the level of output in the economy. The analysis reveals that some macroeconomic policies may have perverse and counter intuitive effects in the system.     

From Partners to Players: Extending the HR Playing Field

HR professionals must always be “becoming” or constantly changing and adapting. For the last decade, many have argued the business partner role as a complement to traditional HR administrative work. We argue in this paper that HR professionals should move beyond partners to become players. HR professionals as players are “in the game, on the field, making a difference” through their HR work. In this article, we suggest that to become players, HR professionals must learn to coach, architect, build, facilitate, lead, and provide a conscience to business leaders. Specific knowledge and tools for each of these roles are described. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A multi‐level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors

We introduce a multi‐level smooth transition model for a panel of time series, which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables. The model is positioned in between a fully pooled model, which imposes such common features, and a fully heterogeneous model, which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity. We introduce a second‐stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between business cycle regimes to observable explanatory variables, thereby allowing for lead–lag relationships across panel members. We discuss representation, estimation by concentrated simulated maximum likelihood and inference. We illustrate our model using quarterly industrial production in 19 US manufacturing sectors, and document that there are subtle differences across sectors in leads and lags for switches between business cycle recessions and expansions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.